Fantasy Football Rankings - Top 10 QB's for 2012

1. Tom Brady – When looking at each of the elite QB's situations, none "improved" as much over last year as Brady's. I think the additions of Josh McDaniels & Brandon Lloyd are going to do wonders for Brady and that high powered offense. Brady is Mr. Consistent; finishing first twice and once third the last four years. No team has more threatening passing options across the board than Brady and the Patriots with Lloyd, Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez. Lloyd and Daniels could be what this offense has been missing since the days of Moss. Only better TE's now! 5,235 yards (2nd) and 39 td's (4th, two behind 3rd & 8 ahead of 5th) in 2011.

2. Aaron Rodgers – The biggest concern heading into the off season for Rodgers was Jermichael Finley's contract status. Well that is resolved now after signing a new two year contract earlier this year. With no real running threat (James Starks, Alex Greene and Brandon Saine) The offense runs through Rodgers. He also rushed the ball 60 times for 257 yards and 3 tds. Only Cam, Tebow and Vick ran from the pocket more. Coming off a season in which Rodgers had 45 tds (second highest, only 1 behind Brees) and only 6 interceptions on over 500 attempted passes for a season rating of 122.5, Rodgers is worthy of #1 as well.

3. Drew Brees – 5,476 yards (1st) and 46 tds. (1st) That should be enough said. But I think he is going to miss Robert Meacham more than some think. Why? His new #2 WR is now Devery Henderson. I like Colston and Moore when healthy and there is no question about Graham and Sproles elite level of play. However considering all that the Saints and Brees have and will go through this season, 2 safer options exist, but let's not get crazy and say Brees is not a top 3 QB!

4. Matthew Stafford – 5,038 yards (3rd) and 41 tds (3rd) and the most passing attempts of 2011 QB's. The biggest news for Stafford is that he made it through the season. He had the finger issue but his numbers are undeniable. He should, if healthy next year be even a little bit better with a balanced attack of a running game with the return of Best, Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure; if they can stay healthy and out of jail. When all else fails, chuck it to Calvin and hope he avoids the Madden curse this year.

5. Cam Newton – I don't really fear a sophomore slump or apply the idea of defenses having more tape on Newton when ranking him here. The main reason is I don’t think he can duplicate the 14 rushing touchdowns. Especially with the signing of Mike Tolbert, whom I expect was brought in to be many things, including the battering ram at the goal line. I suspect Newton will improve on passing touchdowns and probably more yards in the passing game in his second year of Chudzinski's offense. But when you put in the best season as a rookie qb ever, even a good season the next year would be a let down. Smitty is going to be Smitty and along side Greg Olsen, look for Brandon Lafell and Gary Barnidge to have great years too.



6. Michael Vick – Tough year in 2011. He had the rib injury, DeSean Drama and Maclin injuries. On a positive note, there is the emergence of Riley Cooper and the involvement of Brent Celek late in the year. Tough to rank Vick this low, but with the memory of last season, the players above him are much safer and without the propensity to get hurt every year. A few goal line bootlegs don't hurt his fantasy numbers either. Ran 76 times for 589 yards and had 3,303 yards passing and with a 254.1 Y/G avg he could have surpassed 4,000 if healthy. With a full season and everyone healthy he could hit 5,000 total yards. Alot of people are letting Vick fall, when there were times when people talked about him #1 overall.

7. Matt Ryan – I like how Matt Ryan looked closing out the year. After the bye in week 8 before sitting early in week 17 (weeks 9-16) Ryan averaged 298.50 yards per game with 2.25 td's and .50 int's. Over that span had 4 games with 3 or more td's. With Julio, Roddy, Douglas and Gonzo on the field in the hurry up, this offense really clicks. It will be interesting to see how Turner comes back next year with another season of miles under his belt. I like Ryan to exceed his 2011 numbers next year and close the gap to top 5 – 6 status after bulking up this offseason. Waiting and getting Ryan should afford you stout RB's and/or WR's. Possibly an elite TE when that run begins.

8. Tony Romo – I think Romo offers sneaky value when owners look to draft QB's. I hate that he lost Laurent Robinson who made a lot of big catches and bailed Tony out a lot last year. But hopefully with a full offseason Miles Austin's legs are in shape. I think getting back to a real one two punch in the running game with DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones like they had with Marion Barber in his prime will be good for Romo. Those two backs and Dez, Austin and Witten should be a recipe to pounce on after you've locked up your top RB's and/or WR's. Question here, who is going to be his 3rd WR Kevin Ogletree? If one of them goes down, who steps up? 4,184 yards and 31 td's and only 10 int's is no slouch either.

9. Eli Manning – Last year Eli suffered not having Bradshaw for a lengthy stretch and Nicks and Manningham missed games and both played in limited fashion at times. With that said Eli still put up very nice numbers with 4,933 passing yards with 8 games over 300 yards including 3 over 400 yards. Losing Manningham, Nicks injury, rookie (Randle) or special teamer (Hixon) in the slot creates some pause for concern. I'm really interested to see how newly acquired Martellus Bennett performs at TE. He always wanted to play, so now he gets his chance. I'm not bothered by Eli losing Jacobs, but Nicks really concerns me with his rehab and week 1 rivalry game against the Cowboys. Will he push it too hard, too soon? Caring for one injury, usually causes another because of compensating for the original. Eli is on a slippery slope with Hakeem's news.

10. Peyton Manning – What to do with Peyton? Based on who is left, it is either him or Rivers at 10 and I am choosing to go with Peyton. More on Rivers below. From what we know, no one is going to work harder and or prepare more to play this year. Especially for a new team after not playing at all last year. If anyone has something to prove this year it is Peyton. He picked the Broncos and that's enough for me. Am I afraid of him possibly taking the wrong hit in a game and being done for the year? Yes, but why is that any different for any player. Everyone is one hit away from being done for the year. Sure there is risk and I wouldn't hold it against you if you went with Rivers here, but surely Manning is expected to out perform the next 3 or 4 guys (Big Ben, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub and RGIII).


Why is Rivers not in my Top 10 for 2012?
The answer is pretty simple and it's in the form of a question. How is the following production going to be replaced? Vincent Jackson (1106 rec yards, 115 targets, 60 receptions and 9 tds) and Mike Tolbert (433 rec yards, 79 targets, 54 receptions and 2 td's) I know everyone is high on Ryan Mathews this year, but we're talking double duty/production and Robert Meacham is not Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates has made a good living running under Vincent Jackson's routes. Malcolm Floyd seems to be hurt every year and the verdict is out on Eddie Royal at this time as the #3 competing with Vincent Brown.

NFL Rookies 2012 - Sleepers, Busts and Rankings

Roundtable forum piece for Fantasy Football Help Desk.net can also find them at @FFHelpDesk


Question 1 - Fantasy football players are well aware of the top rookies for 2012 such as Richardson, Martin, Wilson, Luck, Griffin, Blackmon, Floyd and Fleener. So, who is your rookie sleeper for the fantasy football season at each position? And why?


Quarterback – Brandon Weeden

Brandon Weeden of the Cleveland Browns is my QB rookie sleeper. He has LT Joe Thomas, RB Trent Richardson, WR Greg Little, two serviceable TE’s in Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore along with WR Josh Cribbs lining up everywhere. In a run heavy division I like this situation better than Ryan Tannehill’s in Miami, that’s even if Tannehill is the starter over Matt Moore. Weeden isn’t going to be asked to do the heavy lifting; Cleveland’s first, first round pick Trent Richardson will be doing that and teams will be stacking the box to contain him, giving Weeden opportunities to make plays and move the chains. I foresee Richardson giving Weeden manageable 3^rd downs, thus allowing Weeden to extend series. When you’re digging through the rookie Qb’s for a sleeper, on paper Weeden is the guy.

Running Back – David Wilson

When looking for a sleeper in the RB ranks, I was looking for touches and opportunity; no one seemed to be better positioned for that than David Wilson of the New York Giants. With the departure of Brandon Jacobs about 40% of the RB touches are up for grabs. I don’t see DJ Ware, Da’Rel Scott or Andre Brown (Suspended first 4 games) standing in his way. In fact, I could see Wilson getting the early down work with the Giants trusting Bradshaw in pass protection and limiting his between the tackle contact. With that said, the gravy on this sleeper pick is that Wilson is surely to start a couple games with Bradshaw’s recent foot injuries. Bradshaw missed 4 games last year and is labeled an injury risk in some circles. Wilson at RB is my rookie sleeper and handcuff to Bradshaw.

Wide Receiver – Kendall Wright

Picking Kendall Wright of the Tennessee Titans for my WR sleeper was pretty easy. I went for the guy with the best QB and situation. Matt Hasselback will start week 1 and will continue to barring a poor start or injury. The situation is good for Wright as well with Kenny Britt coming off ACL surgery and he recently underwent a cleanup procedure that puts him out another 10-12 weeks. Even if he is “ready” for week 1, he will be eased back. Wright in the slot and big play ability after the catch presents huge upside. He also should be used a couple times a game deep, at least to just keep the safeties out of the box as they will be trying to defend Chris Johnson.

Tight End – Ladarius Green

Ladarius Green of the San Diego Chargers may seem like the obvious choice to some and not so much by others. I think the reasons some folks might not consider him a sleeper are the reasons why I like him. Obviously SD has a top flight TE in Antonio Gates, but he hasn’t played a whole season since 2009 and the other TE’s on the roster don’t compare to Gates and Green’s athletic ability (Randy McMichael and Dante Rosario). With the departure of Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert, the Chargers are one Gates misstep from being in a world of hurt. With a lot of teams implementing two TE’s I can see Chargers pressuring defenses with 12 personnel (1 RB 2 TE 2WR) Mathews in the back field, Gates and Green inside with Floyd and Meacham outside. With Rivers at QB that’s a line up I want a piece of and when looking at rookie TE sleepers? Green is my guy!

Linebacker – Lavonte David

I love the potential here for Tampa Bay Buccaneers weak side backer David. In a division that is both strong at QB and RB, the plays are there to be made for David. In addition to playing the run and coverage; look for TB to use his speed to get after the quarterback with the loss of Bowers to Achilles.

Defensive Lineman – Chandler Jones

Chandler Jones of the New England Patriots is another great dual threat. Because of his versatility at both a down lineman and also a stand up pass rusher who can drop into coverage against TE’s; means he will be on the field more and that means more opportunities. Hard to call Chandler Jones who was a first round draft pick a sleeper, but I feel that his actual production will far exceed other DL rookies.

Question 2 - Rookie Rankings

QB	RB	WR	TE
Robert Griffin	Trent Richardson	Michael Floyd	Coby Fleener
Andrew Luck	David Wilson	Jusin Blackmon	Ladarius Green
Ryan Tannehill	Doug Martin	Kendall Wright	Adrien Robinson
Brandon Weeden	Isaiah Pead	Mohamed Sanu	Dwayne Allen
Russell Wilson	Bernard Pierce	Alshon Jeffery	Orson Charles
Brock Osweiler	Vick Ballard	Stephen Hill	Evan Rodriguez
Nick Foles	LaMichael James	Brian Quick	Michael Egnew
Ryan Lindley	Ronnie Hillman	Rueben Randle	James Hanna
Kirk Cousins	Lamar Miller	Nick Toon	Drake Dunsmore
Case Keenum	Dan Herron	DeVier Posey	David Paulson
		T.J. Graham
		Chris Givens
		Greg Childs
		Joe Adams
		Tommy Streeter

Question 3 - Which 1st Round Draft Pick you see as most likely to be a fantasy football bust?

Running Back – Doug Martin

I know everyone is ready to hand Doug Martin aka the “next Ray Rice” the starting job over LeGarrette Blount in Tampa Bay, but I don’t quite see it that way; yet. The story is out on Blount, he can’t be that receiving threat on 3^rd down and that’s supposedly the reason they selected Martin, to be the complete back. However, with the addition of Carl Nicks and the rest of that beastly O-line the Bucs are still going to run power. Taking Blount out of the game tips pass protection and I think with Vincent Jackson in the fold the ability to play action is crucial with Blount in the game. I’m not knocking Martin as a talent and thus a fantasy bust, but based on the word that he is going to come in and be the saving grace to the Bucs ground game; I just don’t see it - yet. With no real pass rush in the pre-season it will be hard to see what Martin brings in pass protection too.