Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII - Against the Spread

Denver Broncos -2.5

I firmly believe that the Seattle Seahawks' defense will give Peyton Manning and his offensive line pressure. They will do this either rushing 5 or just 4 and that's because their corners will be able to jam and re-route Denver's receivers. However, we've seen how capable Knowshon Moreno is in pass protection and Peyton has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. The return of Percy Harvin will be a boost to the Seattle offense, but Denver's defense has been playing inspired and motivated ball lately.

The difference in this game is simply the fact that Manning has too many choices and or options.  He's going to read the defense, get into a favorable read and more times than less Moreno will pick up the blitz. Manning will win all day on his 2nd, 3rd and 4th reads; and when all else fails, he can dump it off to a releasing Moreno. As of now I don't see the weather being a problem and 2.5 points cannot persuade me to consider picking Seattle.

I will however offer this one caveat. If Seattle has a return TD from Harvin along with 3+ turnovers(via sack/fumble or INT), Seattle is built to sustain possession and grind out a win. Just as this game hinges on Manning's late reads, Harvin's return to game action could do the same.

The over is 47, and I'll take that too.