The Fantasy Football landscape of the last couple years has
been one of two ideologies, those who favor the running back early and often and
those who favor the ‘elite’ passer as the foundation for a winning squad. To
get either, you have to get one early. These Yin Yang effects of seemingly
opposite or contrary forces are actually interconnected and interdependent of
each other.
Coming out of 2011 when ‘elite’ quarterbacks seemingly were
on all championship winning squads (3 QB’s with 5k+ PaYD’s and 3 with 40+ PaTD’s)
the tide shifted to a record number of ‘elite’ quarterbacks being taken in
round 1 of 2012 fantasy drafts and even #1 overall. To the contrary, the success of the RB was
limited when it came to benchmark figures: only 1 RB surpassed 1,500 RuYD’s and
only 4 scored a dozen or more RuTD’s.
So with our fish brains we only remember what happened the
year before and decided to follow the food; the real football landscape of the passing
first league into the fox hole and draft Rodgers #1, Brady in the top 5 and
Brees in the Top 10. Thus, hunkering down with whatever RB’s we could get
after, because we were happy to have an ‘elite’ QB and believing their scoring
variance would outweigh a deficiency in other roster spots.
But what happened in 2012? Only 1 QB surpassed 5k yards and
it was Drew Brees. Secondly, only 1 QB passed for more than 40+ TD’s, again
Drew Brees. While the ‘elite’ QB drafters continually waited for that breakout
stretch, or that one needed 40 burger because the rest of their squad was
underperforming, it was the teams with Tony Romo and Matt Ryan enjoying the
success of their first and most likely second round running backs. 2012 saw four
RB’s go over 1,500 RuYD’s and again 4 with a dozen or more RuTD’s.
So what happens in 2013? Does the Yang rise back up and the
QB’s bounce back after a down year? Do the steady and reliable ‘stud’ running
backs continue their 1,500 yards and a dozen or so RuTD’s?
Will you be a hipster spitting in the face of 2012 and the
old school regime and get that ‘elite’ quarterback against all the depth and
value based arguments?
In 2012 we thought we saw the beginning of a trend. We tried
to correlate real life with fantasy. We jumped on the QB train and tried to
ride it to back to back championships, but we were derailed by a tried and true
RB philosophy.
Unfortunately in 2013, we may never know what could have been
with the ‘elite’ quarterbacks and if they could have bounced back in scoring as
pocket passers. This new young crop of QB’s
are throwing and running; and what’s more valuable than a QB that can get you
double value on yards by running?
Looking at Brady and Brees vs. Cam and RGIII you are looking
at a 300 yards passing to 225 yards passing and an almost 2 to 1 passing TD
ratio. But where Cam and RGIII make up the scoring difference is their 50 yards
rushing a game. 50 yards rushing from
your pistol/option/zone read quarterback is worth 100 to 125 passing yards to
the pocket passing QB. So those additional rushing yards more than surpass the aforementioned
75 yard passing difference.
Furthermore Cam and RGIII are averaging almost a half RuTd
as well. So that’s another 3 points that if in a standard league of 4 point
passing TD’s would help bridge that 2 to 1 gap on the passing TD’s.
Bridging these ‘elite’ (Brees, Brady and Rodgers) pocket
passers and the mobile quarterbacks (Kaepernick, Cam and RGIII) are the “very good
guys” like Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and risers
like Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson.
So how big is the league you play in? 10, 12 or 14? Well I just named 12 guys that can all score
similarly and guys like Eli and Big Ben are still out there slinging the ball
all over in a serviceable manner.
Regardless of how those QB’s matriculate the ball the down
the field, the end result in points between any of the aforementioned players
will be negligible on an average basis.
Sure Rodgers, Brady or Brees can single handedly win you a week with a
40 or 50 burger, but ask 2012 Rodgers owners what it felt like waiting for that
week to happen!
So are you going old school and running back first? First
and second? Til all the RB2’s are gone?
Or are you a hipster hanging on that pre 2012 trend of the
pocket passer and banking on the 5k yards and 40+ TD’s? The question I have for you is which of the 3
‘elite’ quarterbacks will it be this year?
What I can tell you with great confidence is that I do know
who’s going to rush for 1,500 yards and a dozen or so TD’s.