Thursday, January 2, 2014

San Francisco 49ers to "Push" Passed the Spread and Win

The Sunday forecast in Green Bay calls for a high in the single digits and a negative low, and that's without adjusting for the wind-chill! The outcome for this game however, will be determined by how "hot" Colin Kaepernick is and that’s exactly what he’s been when he’s faced Green Bay.   

In his last two games against the Packers, including last year’s playoff victory, he has amassed 675 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns along with 203 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns.   

He is coming off his first 300 yard passing game since his week one victory against whom else, but the Pack.  Colin will also have Michael Crabtree back, who was not able to play week one but had 9 catches for 119 yards and 2 TDs in last year’s playoff win. Colin will not have to face Clay Matthews who has been ruled out due to a thumb injury and had 1 of GB’s 2 sacks in week one. The other sack? Johnny Jolly and he’s now on injured reserve. That’s not good news for a defense allowing 26.8 points per game.   

At this point in the year, the ground games of both teams are running smoothly and you know Aaron Rodgers will get his despite the edge on defense being greatly slanted toward San Fran. 

I expect LaMichael James to counter Green Bay’s scoring plays with big returns as Mason Crosby ranks 36th in the league in touchback percentage and only has 3 touchbacks at home all year.   

The spread reflects a slight edge for San Fran, but I think Phil Dawson gets a late opportunity to “push” passed the 3 point spread forcing the Packers to score a touchdown on their final drive and fail.  

The 49ers are primed to make another run to the Super Bowl in a 27-21 victory on the road.